Hey friend,
Lots on the menu today.
As expected, the Fed held rates steady yesterday.
But they were pretty hawkish on inflation, with three members opposing “future rate cut” language.
We had the usual weekly initial jobless claims, which surprisingly came in below expectations.
However, Q1 GDP data also came in below expectations at 2.0% versus 2.2% expected.
There was personal income and spending.
While spending came in right in line with expectations, personal income came in far over.
And finally, we got the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the PCE Index.
While the numbers were in line with expectations, they were also far above last month’s, at 3.5% annual.
Let’s see how the markets have been moving.
The Daily Direction
Note: Indexes closed mixed yesterday but opened higher this morning – keeping all index directions upward.
The Daily Nugget
When emotion and evidence don’t line up – follow the evidence.
One of the easiest ways to lose money in the market is to let the crowd’s mood pull you in the wrong direction.
Because when the data says one thing, and the crowd feels another, it’s very easy to get twisted up.
But this is exactly where the proper mindset matters most
You don’t need to guess what the market should be doing.
You don’t need to follow the mood.
You need to stay calm, stay grounded, and focus on what the evidence is actually telling you.
In his newsletter earlier today, Head Trader Ross Givens pointed out a great example of this.
Consumers still feel bad about the economy.
A lot of people still think now is a bad time to invest.
But the evidence says something very different:
Stocks are back at or very close to all-time highs.
Profit margins remain strong.
And most companies are still beating expectations.
That kind of divergence creates opportunity.
Because in markets like this, the crowd is usually late.
And one of the best ways to stay on the right side of that divide is to watch what the right people are actually doing.
Head Trader Ross Givens will share more on that tomorrow.
In the meantime, if you’ve been thinking about investing in this $800 billion IPO…
Think again.
The Traders Agency Team
