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Dangerous Myth About Trading Conviction

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Hey friend,

Today’s PPI report showed inflation still running hotter than expected…

With the monthly increase coming in at 0.4% (in line with expectations) and the annual at 5.4% (0.1% above expectations).

We also got the usual weekly jobless claims, which, at 206,000 – came in just a hair above expectations and the same as last week.

Let’s see how the markets have been moving.

The Daily Direction

Note: All indexes closed lower yesterday and opened lower this morning as well – sending the medium-term direction of the S&P 500 downward.

The Daily Nugget

Don’t confuse familiarity with conviction.

A Wall Street analyst can know a company incredibly well.

They’ve read every filing.

Listened to every earnings call.

Built detailed models.

Spoken with management.

Maybe they’ve covered the stock for five or ten years.

That gives them a lot of knowledge.

But it doesn’t automatically mean they have conviction.

They can still slap a Buy rating on the stock, publish a price target and move on.

They haven’t necessarily put a dollar of their own money behind the call.

That’s a very different signal from somebody inside the company reaching into their own pocket and buying shares.

So when you’re weighing opinions, don’t confuse knowing a lot about a company with being willing to bet real money on it.

The two can look similar from the outside.

They’re not.

The Traders Agency Team

P.S. Speaking of conviction…

This is what stocks do right before they explode higher.

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