This week has been all about jobs data – and how they’ll impact the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.
Next week will be all about inflation data – and how they’ll impact the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.
In short, the market’s narrative – and direction – is still very much driven by the Fed.
The Daily Direction
Note: All indexes closed higher yesterday, although not enough to create any change in directions.
The Daily Nugget
Everything is probabilistic
Everything is probabilistic – that’s the real theory of everything.
Studying price action, chart patterns, company fundamentals, and macroeconomic conditions…
All they do is make us better at estimating probabilities.
Don’t get us wrong – this is absolutely critical…
But it cannot guarantee certainty.
Once you accept that trading is a game of probabilities…
You understand that the spoils go to those who can better estimate these probabilities…
AND who can manage their risk better (so they always survive to keep playing the game).
An effective trading strategy is just a probabilistic edge – just like the house in a casino.
That’s all the game really is.
So, if you don’t have a probabilistic edge that’s working for you right now…
The Traders Agency Team